At the upper end of that range, global average temperatures will be high enough to wreak unimaginable destruction on the environment and humanity. The range expands to 1.7 to 3.8° C when it includes the uncertainty in the climate response. Plugging in the numbers based on the pledges made before and during COP26, temperatures are projected to rise 2.2º C to 2.7º C. In its latest study, which is published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the authors argue that the business as usual case will lead to a rise in global temperatures of between 2.3º C and 2.9º C by 2100. All you can hope for is a range of possibilities and to narrow that range as much as you can. Trying to calculate what ball number 2,345,675,964 will do in 50 years if you hit ball number one with the cue ball today is impossible. Imagine the Earth is a giant billiard table with trillions of balls on it.
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Two, trying to see through a fog of numbers into the middle future - 2100, for instance - is an incredibly daunting task. One, predicting what the Earth’s climate will be like in 10 years from now is immensely difficult. The latest study from CICERO, the Center For International Climate Research in Oslo, Norway, makes two points. Prime Minister Boris Johnson declared after the conference, “he world is undeniably heading in the right direction.” John Kerry, the special climate envoy for the United States added, “We are in fact closer than we have ever been before to avoiding climate chaos.” There is a lot of happy talk from global leaders trying to put a brave face on the COP26 fiasco.